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Tuesday, July 1, 2008

Stock Market Forecasting Bad Recession

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AlphaKing.com

Daily Trend and Trade Review


July 1, 2008



Trader Talk

The major stock indexes traded back and forth the unchanged level today, with the mildly positive close run on higher volume.

Officially, the NASDAQ advanced 0.5% on 2.7 billion shares, while the Dow Industrials rose 0.3% on NYSE volume of 5.9 billion shares. The leadership profile remains very negative, with 77 stocks making new highs versus 1154 stocks making new lows.

The short term momentum oscillators remain negative, confirming the bearish stance of the AlphaKing Trading Indicator. We have no new trades at this time.

The stock market fell to new lows today, seeing the S&P500 touch its March intraday bottom, before a late-day rally saved the day for the bulls. The reaction tomorrow is going to be very interesting. A hard rally from such support may open the door to a larger bounce, along the lines of the one to two week thing we mentioned yesterday. No follow-through from today's rebound, and the selling flood-gates should open for real as the March lows get taken out for the S&P500, as it did a week or so ago for the Dow Industrials. There are no signs that the bearish stance of our indicators is in danger of being proven wrong. As trend-followers, who would just love to fatten our 401Ks going forward from any major bottom here, being proven wrong this time around would be met with a nice smile.

We believe the larger picture is of recession that has the potential to turn into a depression, thus a return to the financial world of complacent money-debt-spin-around as we used to know it would be just fine with us. The AK Trading Indicator was designed to make big money when-ever a big move landed, and folks we have a big move headed our way in a hurry. Up, would be fine with us, though it's more likely to be its evil money-destroying twin.

Kevin Wilde, Chief Trading Strategist AlphaKing.com.

For Free charts with trading signals and fundamentals ratings, visit AlphaKing

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